Projektdatenbank (ab 2004)

Projektnummer

0065118

Zusammenfassung

In view of ongoing climate change, two key challenges of Earth system science are to predict (i) changes in extreme weather events, and (ii) abrupt state transitions of unstable subsystems of the Earth system. In current Earth system models (ESMs), many processes are not resolved explicitly, but approximated by empirical equations with free parameters, leading to structural model errors. These errors are sufficiently small that ESMs can be tuned to reproduce climatic averages of the last 150 years, for which instrumental observations are available. However, the same models perform poorly in si...